Apple iPhone 18 Estimates Are 'Too Conservative', Gene Munster Says Duo to Account for 8% of Units

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) changed things up this year with its iPhone release schedule. The company is releasing the Pro and Pro Max more expensive models first, months before the base iPhone model. A market expert says that move is paying off for the company. Apple’s Decision is Working Apple recently began shipping the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, smartphones that come with slight price increases due to rising component costs for the technology giant. Tracking from Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster shows that these iPhone models are seeing lead times 15% longer than a year ago. This means buyers may be opting for the more expensive iPhone models rather than waiting for the base model’s release in the spring. The investor tracks the lead times from eight countries daily. The countries include the United States, United Kingdom, China, Canada, Switzerland, France, Japan and Germany. Munster said he expected the lead times to be shorter this year. The foldable Duo smartphone will begin preorders on Oct. 16 with deliveries on Oct. 23. Munster said the early demand for that phone will show if the trend is continuing of consumers buying the premium more expensive iPhone models and not waiting for the base model in spring 2027. Read Also: Apple Stock: 64% of Benzinga Viewers Have Owned It. Here’s How Many Still Do Are Street Estimates Too Low? Consensus estimates for iPhone revenue in fiscal 2027 are $9.5 billion, according to Munster. "I think the Street is still 10% too low on iPhone revenue for FY27," Munster said. Munster said estimates show only around 4.5 million Duo sales expected in fiscal 2026, but the revenue estimate may not account for this $2,100 average selling price phone. The investor said it may be hard for Apple to win over some existing foldable smartphone users from rival companies, but the Duo could hit 35% market share in its first year. "I would consider that an understandable outlook, but also too conservative." Munster estimates that a third of Pro Max users could make the jump to Duo, which could increase iPhone revenue by 10%, due to the higher average selling prices. The investor estimates that the Duo will make up around 8% of iPhone units next year and 14% of iPhone revenue. Apple Stock Price Action Apple stock is up 0.1% to $336.48 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $243.42 to $344.57. Apple stock is up 24.2% year-to-date in 2026. Read Also: Apple Duo Foldable iPhone a ‘Must Have Product,’ Gary Black Says ‘Don’t Underestimate the Power of the $AAPL Marketing Machine’ Apple iPhone 18 Pro | Photo courtesy: Apple