ASML Is Sold Out For 2028: Cantor’s Muse Sees 66% Upside For The Stock

Some restaurants are so busy they stop taking reservations. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) has reached that point with the most complex machines ever sold. The Dutch company now expects supply to fall short of customer demand until at least 2028. Chipmakers are already asking to book machines for 2029 and even 2030. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse said the message from Wednesday’s third-quarter call was "very clear — demand is outrunning supply." He reiterated an Overweight rating and a €2,500 price target, about $2,785. That is roughly 66% above Wednesday’s ADR stock price of $1,675. ASML also remains one of Cantor’s Top Picks. Every Table Is Booked Through 2028 ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines print the smallest circuits on advanced chips. Management described the planned 30% capacity increases for 2027 and 2028 as minimums, not ceilings. It is looking for ways to push 2028 output higher. Yet, ASML is not yet accepting orders for 2029 and 2030. It wants a clearer view of total demand first, so that long-term customers are not left out. In addition, non-current contract liabilities jumped 160% from the prior quarter. Muse believes these are largely down payments. A down payment is cash a customer puts up front to secure a future machine. As a result, Muse sees ASML as "effectively SOLD OUT through CY28." He also called the roughly 85 low-NA EUV tools planned for 2027 conservative. Cantor models 90. Read Also: ASML's Next Big Chipmaking Cycle Has a Timeline—Intel, Samsung and TSMC Set It The Quarter Beat Where It Mattered ASML gave no new shipment number for 2027 and 2028. The results still beat expectations. Third-quarter revenue rose 55% year over year to €11.66 billion ($12.99 billion). Earnings per share of €12.93 ($14.40) topped the €10.30 ($11.47) consensus. The December-quarter revenue guide of €14.7 billion ($16.37 billion) at the midpoint was also well above the €13.7 billion ($15.26 billion) consensus. A Full Room Lets ASML Raise Prices When every table is taken, prices tend to follow. ASML has agreed on value-based pricing with key customers, meaning prices rise with a machine’s productivity. The full effect arrives in 2028. Cantor sees gross margins reaching 59% in 2028, with 60% "very, very doable." It now expects 2028 EPS of €80 ($89.11), well above the €67.88 ($75.61) consensus. ASML said China has little reason to build its own machines as long as ASML keeps selling there. China still made up 23% of third-quarter revenue. "We continue to view domestic Chinese litho as a longer-dated risk rather than a near-term threat to ASML’s franchise," Muse said. The Stock Has Not Caught Up With The Waiting List ASML’s U.S.-listed shares fell 2.1% to $1,680.92 Wednesday afternoon and are down 6% over the past week. That leaves them about 16% below their 52-week high, though still up 48% this year. The waiting list now runs to the end of the decade. The stock does not yet reflect it. Read Also: ASML Says AI Boom Is Boosting Pricing Power as Chipmakers Agree to Pay More