Analyst Sees SpaceX Squeezing AST SpaceMobile on Launch Access and Pricing

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are trading lower after Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter downgraded the stock and cut his price forecast. The analyst lowered his rating from Overweight to Neutral and slashed his price target from $98 to $54. The decline erased Monday’s gains following Deutsche Bank’s upgrade to Buy and its $93 price forecast. Launch Delays and SpaceX Competition Weigh on Outlook Potter’s bearish stance reflects reduced confidence in the pace of satellite launches during 2026–2027.He noted that Space Exploration Technologies Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:SPCX) growing ambitions in the direct-to-cell market, including its reported $8 billion mobile spectrum purchase, raise concerns about potential competition. SpaceX could limit launch capacity for mobile network operator partners such as AST SpaceMobile, offer lower service prices or introduce its own devices. Read Also: ASTS Stock Drops 15% on SpaceX Threat: This ETF Holds Both Sides of the Satellite War However, Potter remains positive on the company’s longer-term prospects beyond 2027. He also noted that stronger competition from SpaceX could encourage mobile operators to seek alternatives. Satellite and Service Forecasts Cut Potter cut his AST SpaceMobile satellite esimates to 18 by year-end 2026 and 60 by year-end 2027, down from 45 and 68, respectively. The analyst now expects U.S. direct-to-cell service to begin in the second half of 2027, rather than in the fourth quarter of 2026. He also lowered his estimated monthly service price to $12 from $15 to reflect competition. Revised Estimates Trail Consensus Piper now estimates that AST SpaceMobile will generate $155 million and $398 million in revenue in 2026 and 2027, respectively, below consensus estimates of $160 million and $690 million. ASTS Earnings Preview and Analyst Price Target Outlook Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the Nov. 9, 2026, (estimated) earnings report. EPS Estimate: Loss of 41 cents (Up from Loss of 45 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $46.73 million (Up from $14.74 million YoY) ASTS Stock Price Activity: AST SpaceMobile shares are trading lower by 8.88% at $46.89 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Photo via Shutterstock