Bernstein: 45% Bitcoin Crash Is The 'Weakest Bear Case In History', $150,000 Remains The Target

Bernstein reaffirmed its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price target, despite a 45% drawdown from October highs, calling the selloff the “weakest bear case in history.” The Three Bullish Pillars Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani listed three reasons for their conviction. First, Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) keeps buying despite widespread chaos among other Bitcoin treasury firms and shorts piling into the stock. The company now holds roughly 3.6% of total Bitcoin supply worth about $53.5 billion. Second, investors continue buying Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs added $2.2 billion over the last four weeks, with more long-term allocations from wealth managers, pension funds, and sovereign funds. Third, long-term holders haven’t sold despite the 45% drawdown. Bitcoin holders inactive for more than one year represent 60% of total supply, signifying long-term believers who remain insensitive to volatility and hold Bitcoin as a store of value. The STRC Advantage Bernstein highlighted growing demand for Strategy’s preferred instrument STRC, which offers an 11.5% monthly dividend with low volatility. STRC’s perpetual structure reduces equity dilution while providing long-term capital, with trading volumes rising 65% over the past three months. The broker maintains an outperform rating on Strategy with a $450 price target. The stock trades around $138.10. Bitcoin Outperforms Gold During Iran War Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the Iran conflict began at the end of February, up almost 8% while gold fell over 17% from its pre-war price. Oil is roughly 30% higher than before the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran on February 28, fueling inflation concerns. U.S. stocks have taken a broad beating, yet Bitcoin has fared better than most assets. The Track Record Bernstein first predicted Bitcoin would hit $150,000 by the end of 2025, then raised the target to $200,000 in June 2024. In December, Bernstein retracted the $200,000 target and shifted to $150,000 by end of 2026 with a potential cycle high of $200,000 in 2027. BTC Tests $70,000 Support Bitcoin is struggling to hold above the $70,000 psychological level. Price remains compressed within a rising channel with the lower boundary providing support near $67,500-$68,000. All four EMAs cluster tightly between $70,082-$70,755, indicating consolidation. A decisive close above this EMA cluster would open the path toward $74,000-$76,000 resistance. Image: Shutterstock