Bitcoin's Next Leg Down Is Coming And It Will Catch Most People Off Guard, Says Benjamin Cowen

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will likely break below $60,000 in the coming weeks despite a false sense of security that prices will simply range between $60,000-$70,000 for the rest of the year, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen’s historical pattern analysis. The Midterm Year Pattern Cowen points to a consistent pattern across midterm years: Bitcoin finds a low in February, rallies to a lower high in March, then drops into April. This played out in 2014, 2018, and 2022—and appears to be repeating in 2026. Bitcoin’s year-to-date returns historically start heading down around day 82-90 of the year. The market currently sits on day 86, placing the potential breakdown within the next week or two based on historical precedent. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin found resistance at the 21-week EMA or 20-week SMA during March rallies before rolling over. In 2026, Bitcoin hasn’t even reached that resistance level yet, suggesting weakness compared to prior cycles. Why The Outperformance Narrative Is Wrong Cowen challenges the narrative that Bitcoin is outperforming the S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) and gold. Bitcoin’s valuation against the S&P 500 remains down 47% from the peak and hasn’t reached the 20-week SMA since October. Against gold, Bitcoin is down 62% from the December cycle top. “When you go down to these lows, it’s normal to get counter trend rallies back up,” Cowen explained. The recent strength simply represents a bounce within a broader downtrend, not a reversal. Bitcoin held up better than stocks and gold recently only because it already got annihilated well before those markets did. The $60,000 Level Won’t Hold Cowen argues that $60,000 parallels the $6,000 level from prior bear markets in 2018 and 2019—a temporary support level that eventually broke. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin typically tags the 200-week moving average during bear markets, and the last two cycles went below it. The first range from the January top took about 54 days before breaking down. The current range has lasted 39 days, suggesting another rally attempt into early April is possible before the real leg down begins. However, Cowen doesn’t recommend betting heavily on that scenario. The Recession Risk Cowen notes that business cycle charts show a late-cycle environment similar to 2019 before the pandemic recession. Every late business cycle environment going back decades ended with a recession, which historically coincides with Bitcoin breaking below the 200-week moving average. “The narrative follows price, not the other way around,” Cowen said. He expects Bitcoin could drop to $50,000-$40,000 later this year, though he doesn’t know what news event will be blamed for it. What matters is the pattern, not the excuse. The Weekly vs. Monthly RSI Divergence While the weekly RSI suggests Bitcoin could be near a low, the monthly RSI tells a different story. It continues trending down with significant room to fall before reaching levels seen at prior cycle bottoms. Additionally, the MVRV Z-score historically bottoms below zero in midterm years, which hasn’t happened yet. Image: Shutterstock