Strategy Faces ‘Dilution Drag’ as TD Cowen Raises Bitcoin Forecast to $109,000

TD Cowen on Thursday raised its Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) forecast to $109,000 but held its Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) target steady at $260, citing dilution risk. Why Higher Bitcoin Prices Don’t Fully Flow Through TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete wrote in a report, cited by The Block, that Strategy’s capital structure is eating into the per-share gains investors might otherwise expect from a stronger Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) price. The analysts kept their Buy rating, arguing bitcoin ownership per MSTR share has become “less robust” once debt and preferred shares like STRC (NASDAQ:STRC), STRF and STRD are factored in, since those holders have claims ahead of common shareholders. Part of the issue traces back to how Strategy deploys new capital. Rather than funneling every dollar raised straight into Bitcoin purchases, the company is building cash reserves and supporting its preferred share lineup. That approach can help attract investors long-term, but it leaves less capital available for immediate buying. Where Strategy’s Valuation Stands Now Strategy’s valuation has climbed back to roughly one times net asset value after dropping as low as 0.63 in June, according to Saylor Tracker. Its Bitcoin holdings, now at exactly 848,000 BTC, carry around $4.5 billion in unrealized profit. MSTR shares fell about 2.5% to $150 Thursday, leaving the stock down nearly 5% year to date, even after a recovery from late June through mid-August when it struggled to clear $100. The analyst’s $260 target implies roughly 73% upside from that level. TD Cowen’s updated model now projects Bitcoin near $109,000 by the end of 2026, climbing to $280,000 by 2029. That outlook runs well above QCP Capital’s fourth-quarter base case of $80,000 to $90,000. Strategy’s Other Recent Headline: Tokenized Stock Lead Separately, Saylor shared a chart on X showing Strategy leads all companies in tokenized stock value on-chain, with $491 million combined across MSTR and STRC tokens, captioning it simply “Probably nothing.” That total tops Circle (NYSE:CRCL) at $338 million, SpaceX at $174 million, Nvidia at $150 million, and Tesla at $120 million, exceeding SpaceX, Nvidia and Tesla’s combined tokenized value of $444 million. Where MSTR Stands Technically .benzinga-widget#bz-embed-widget-block_b8cb4b1cde7144a62ba18ce37fa6f916 iframe.w-full { width: 100%; } MSTR is up 3% Friday, reclaiming ground after this week’s pullback and holding above the descending trendline from May’s $199 high, which has flipped to support following September’s breakout. Price sits above its 20-day, 50-day and 100-day EMAs and has pushed back above the 200-day EMA at $153.14. Key levels for MSTR: $158 to $165: resistance zone, next test for continuation $138: 50-day EMA, deeper support Photo via Shutterstock Read Also: XRP Beats Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana in ETF Flows: Can Price Follow?