Why Polymarket's $20 Billion Valuation Ask Might Actually Be Conservative.

Polymarket is targeting a $20 billion valuation, which may be conservative compared to Kalshi's recent $22 billion valuation after raising $1 billion at an 83.5x fee multiple. Polymarket captured approximately one-third of the $23.2 billion processed in prediction markets in February 2026, with projected annual fee revenue potentially approaching $300 million. The report anticipates significant volume growth through 2028, with a base case modeling 50% annual growth, while also highlighting risks from competition and potential legal challenges.