Trump Says Prediction Markets Beat 'Fake Polls'—And HOOD, CME Race To Cash In On The Boom

Donald Trump said that prediction markets “predicted me pretty right… by a landslide,” calling them better than “fake polls.” The endorsement lands as the industry races past $17 billion in monthly volume while fighting criminal charges and multiple congressional bills simultaneously. The Presidential Stamp Trump made the comments in a phone call with NYU law fellow Max Raskin. A 2025 Vanderbilt study backs Trump’s claim, finding Polymarket outperformed polling in swing states during the 2024 election. After the July 2024 assassination attempt, traders repriced Trump’s odds instantly. Polls didn’t budge. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, has matched the tone. He filed an amicus brief in the 9th Circuit asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over prediction markets and called state enforcement actions a “power grab.” Where The Money Is Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ:HOOD) CEO Vlad Tenev has called prediction markets the fastest-growing business in company history, with a revenue run rate above $300 million. The company moved over 4 billion event contracts in January alone. Tenev said he wants prediction markets embedded directly on individual stock pages, calling stock price an “imperfect proxy” for a specific EPS or revenue outcome. If that ships, every earnings season becomes a prediction market event and HOOD clips a fee on both sides. CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) hit 100 million event contracts traded in just eight weeks earlier this year, powering Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE:FLUT) FanDuel Predicts app. Five Bills, Zero Chance At least five bills targeting prediction markets landed in Congress this month. The Schiff-Curtis “Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act” goes after sports contracts. Sen. Chris Murphy’s (D-CT) BETS OFF Act targets war and government action bets. Sens. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Andy Kim (D-NJ) want to hand power back to states. Merkley-Klobuchar would bar elected officials from trading entirely. And today, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-CA), Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Rep. Jamie Raskin dropped the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, the broadest yet, covering elections, sports, war and government actions. None of them are going anywhere, according to TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg, who called them “messaging bills.” A veto is near-certain given Donald Trump Jr. sits on the advisory boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket, but Seiberg flagged 2028 as the real threat: a Democratic White House could flip the regulatory landscape overnight. Trump said he doesn’t have time to look at the markets himself. “I’m focused on winning battles of every way, shape and form.” But he credited his own regulatory reform for the industry’s growth. Image: Shutterstock