Chipotle Q3 Preview: Promos Could Push Comp Positive Despite Food-Safety Drag, Says Bullish Analyst

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:CMG) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28. The company’s results are likely to show continued sales recovery, excluding the drag from Cyclospora and the jalapeno-related salmonella incident, according to BofA Securities. The Chipotle Mexican Grill Analyst: Analyst Sara Senatore maintained a Buy rating and price target of $53. The Chipotle Mexican Grill Thesis: The same-store sales estimate for the third quarter has been raised from flat to 1%, "as heavier-than-expected promo activity partially offsets food-safety pressure," Senatore said in the note. Check out other analyst stock ratings. "A positive comp would indicate resilient traffic and signal continued acceleration in 4Q," she wrote. While Chipotle Mexican Grill invested more heavily in limited-time offers, promotional activities and brand activations in the third quarter of 2026 than in the year-ago quarter, these were more concentrated, with activity moderating in September, the analyst noted. With incremental activity being targeted (toward digital, event-based offers), its impact on profitability was constrained, Senatore said. "Over time, digital activations also enrich customer databases, helping further improve targeting," she further wrote. In the latter half of the third quarter, Chipotle Mexican Grill featured Pollo Asada, the analyst stated. While chicken will likely pressure mix, higher food margins could offset the impact on profitability, she added. Senatore raised the revenue estimate for 2026 from $13.02 billion to $13.05 billion, while keeping the earnings forecast unchanged at $1.16 per share. "Reiterate Buy on industry-leading unit growth and improving traffic," she said. CMG Stock Price Activity: Chipotle Mexican Grill shares are trading lower by 1.12% at $29.55 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Read Also: Chipotle Stock Falls After Starbucks Says It Is Not Buying the Chain