Markets Fear Prolonged Iran War – These 2 'Hormuz Stock Baskets' Show Why

The ongoing conflict in Iran has led to a significant divergence in stock performance related to the Strait of Hormuz, with a 32 percentage point spread between companies benefiting from a closed strait and those requiring it to be open. A basket of stocks positioned for disruption has seen an average increase of 17.55%, with Red Cat Holdings leading at a 40.95% gain, while a basket of companies reliant on open shipping routes has dropped an average of 15.35%, with Alaska Air Group experiencing the largest decline at 23.80%. Prediction markets indicate a 74% chance that the Strait will remain disrupted for at least six more weeks, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its Brent crude price forecast upward to an average of $100 per barrel for March.