Delta CEO Says Demand Is 'Really, Really Great', Raises Revenue Guidance As Jet Fuel Doubles, TSA Shortages Continue

Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC on Tuesday that travel demand has been “really, really great” despite a $400 million hit from surging jet fuel costs, as the airline raised its first-quarter revenue guidance at a JPMorgan investor conference. Delta now expects Q1 revenue growth in the high single digits, and to come in at the original earnings guidance, at 50 to 90 cents EPS, which he described as healthy growth. American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) raised its own outlook even further, guiding for revenue growth above 10%, a record for the carrier. 90% Of Revenue Comes From The Top Of The K Bastian said Delta’s consumer base remains “very healthy,” noting that 90% of revenue now comes from the top end of the K-shaped economy. Eight of the airline’s top ten sales days in history came in the last quarter. Revenue is up 25% year-over-year, though Bastian noted part of the comparison reflects last year’s tariff-driven weakness. When asked if customers are pushing back on fare increases, Bastian said no. “Delta’s brand is strong… Customers understand that if fuel prices are up… it’s incumbent on us to figure out ways to recover that.” He added that weaker airlines further down the food chain have no choice but to pass fuel costs through even faster. Pressed on what happens if oil stays elevated for months, Bastian said if oil found a new higher level, business plans would be “significantly altered at the lower end of the spectrum,” but suggested premium and corporate demand could hold. TSA Crisis The guidance raise comes against a brutal backdrop. Jet fuel has roughly doubled since the U.S.-Iran war began in late February and winter storms cost Delta about two points of capacity this quarter. Meanwhile, a partial government shutdown has left TSA officers working without pay. Bastian called the situation “inexcusable,” saying frontline agents “are being used as political chips.” He said the disruption tends to hit hardest on weekends and at southern airports, but Delta has been holding flights so passengers don’t miss connections, and it hasn’t had a big impact on the business. His main concern was agents missing paychecks. What Prediction Markets Say Kalshi bettors aren’t sharing Bastian’s optimism on the broader economy. Recession odds for 2026 jumped above 32% on the platform last week, the highest since November, up from under 23% days earlier. Polymarket traders see a 31% chance of recession by year-end. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this week, with both platforms pricing a 99% probability of no change, suggesting the central bank may be stuck even as recession fears build. DAL shares are up about 4% today. Image: Shutterstock