Gold Taps $4,100 And Dollar Emerges As Ultimate Crisis Safe Haven, Says TD Securities Strategist

Gold (NYSE:GLD) fell as low as $4,100 on Monday before recovering above $4,400, erasing all of its 2026 gains after the metal’s worst week since 1983. The sell-off has wiped more than 20% from January’s all-time high of $5,590, and Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, says the safe haven crown has changed hands entirely. “The dollar has been the ultimate safe haven during this conflict,” Ghali said, “That is detrimental to gold since over the last year, gold has been the ultimate safe haven.” The Trade That Broke The logic appears straightforward. The war pushed oil above $100, which may be reigniting inflation and eroding rate-cut expectations. The dollar and Treasury yields have both climbed. Gold pays no yield, so in that environment, it loses to the dollar on every metric that matters. Polymarket traders price the odds of a 2026 hike at 17%, up from 9% before the conflict began. The odds have swung wildly as Trump has given conflicting signals. Gold hit an all-time high near $5,590 on Jan. 28. It traded below $4,300 on Monday. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) dropped 11% last week alone, and $4.2 billion left the fund in a single week earlier this month, the largest weekly outflow ever recorded. What Happens Next Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street’s most followed strategists, still holds a $6,000 year-end target but warned he is considering cutting it to $5,000 if gold “continues to defy expectations that it should be rising on unsettling geopolitical developments.” On Kalshi, the odds of a recession this year jumped to 37%. If the oil shock tips the economy, the rate hike thesis may collapse with it, and the primary headwind on gold disappears overnight. Polymarket gives gold a 38% chance it continues its fall to $3,800, and a 24% chance it regains $5,000, by the end of June. Gold has historically rallied during geopolitical crises. This one is doing the opposite — the oil shock is keeping inflation hot and the Fed hawkish, which is exactly what hurts gold most. Image: Shutterstock