September Jobs Report Misses: US Economy Adds 29,000 Jobs

The U.S. economy added 29,000 nonfarm payrolls in September, well below the 90,000 economists had expected, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday. The unemployment rate came in at 4.2%, above the 4.1% consensus. Wage growth also undershot forecasts. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% month over month, versus 0.3% expected, and 3% year over year, versus 3.2% expected. Prior to the employment report, Fed futures had priced in only a 23% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike this month. Revisions Make The Picture Weaker This morning’s jobs data, the final report before the midterm elections, starkly contrasts with White House messaging that the U.S. job market and broader economy are booming under President Donald Trump‘s leadership. The numbers say otherwise, as the previous two months’ jobs reports were revised lower in the weeks following their release. August payrolls were cut to 133,000 from 162,000. And July went from a gain of 21,000 to a loss of 10,000. Together, July and August now show 60,000 fewer jobs than first reported. Over the past 12 months, the economy has added an average of 45,000 jobs per month. Health care added 17,000 jobs, about half its 12-month average of 33,000. Construction added 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and are down 129,000 since May 2025. Stocks Rally As Rate Hike Bets Fade Before the report, Fed futures priced only a 23% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike this month. After the release, that chance fell to 13%, according to CME FedWatch. Stocks rallied as expectations for Fed tightening collapsed. As of 8:43 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 was up 0.41% at 7,737.78 in premarket trading. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.52%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43%. Small caps led, with the Russell 2000 up 0.88%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell about 6 basis points to 4.72%. The 10-year yield fell 6 basis points to 5.18%, and the 30-year fell 4 basis points to 5.57%. The dollar index (DXY) slipped 0.16% to 101.60. Gold – tracked by the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) — rose 0.87% to $4,211 an ounce. WTI crude fell 0.66% to $89.40 a barrel. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) traded 2% higher to $86,800. This is a developing story… Image: Shutterstock