Google Turns Up AI Heat With Gemini 4 Argon, Rivals May Have to Cut Prices: Analyst

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) continues to expand Google’s AI strategy around advanced models, lower pricing and deeper integration across its consumer and enterprise platforms. Its latest Gemini 4 Argon launch drew positive reactions from BNP Paribas and Jefferies, with both firms pointing to Google’s infrastructure, distribution and ecosystem as key advantages in the AI race. BNP Paribas Sees More Ways to Monetize Gemini BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones said Gemini 4 Argon reinforces Google’s commitment to competing at the AI frontier. Jones highlighted Alphabet’s combination of AI research, proprietary computing infrastructure, broad distribution and financial resources as key advantages. He expects Google could eventually offer a wider range of AI models across different price points, allowing the company to serve more use cases while balancing performance, latency and cost. BNP Paribas also sees potential for Google to introduce a consumer-facing agent similar to Meta Platforms Inc.’s (NASDAQ:META) Muse and distribute it through its existing consumer ecosystem. The firm has a $420 price forecast on Alphabet, representing 22% upside from its Sept. 30 price of $344.10. Google plans to introduce Argon at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens, with cached input tokens priced at a 95% discount. Jones also pointed to CEO Sundar Pichai’s comment that "you’re going to see us iterating rapidly," as evidence of Alphabet’s continued push to advance its models. Jefferies Says Pricing Could Force Rivals to Respond Jefferies analyst Brent Thill also views Gemini 4 Argon as a positive development but cautioned that investors still need to see how the model performs outside benchmark testing. Thill described the AI model race as a "game of leapfrog," with different developers repeatedly taking the lead on features and performance to CNBC on Thursday. He identified Argon’s pricing as a particularly important competitive move, saying it is roughly 50% cheaper than some rival models and could force competitors to adjust their own pricing. That could increase pressure on standalone AI models and make the broader platforms surrounding them more important. Google’s Ecosystem Could Matter More Than Model Leadership Thill believes Google and Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) hold strong long-term positions because enterprises need AI integrated with applications, data, infrastructure and existing workflows. He said Google does not necessarily need to lead every model cycle because its existing platform gives it multiple ways to embed and distribute AI. Developers may currently switch between models based on price, speed and performance, but Thill does not expect that behavior to continue indefinitely. He believes companies with the broadest platforms could ultimately gain an advantage. Thill called Gemini 4 Argon "a great step in the right direction," while stressing that Google still needs to show that its benchmark results translate into real-world performance. Analysts See Broader Value Beyond a Single Model Together, BNP Paribas and Jefferies see Alphabet’s opportunity extending beyond one model launch. Their views center on Google’s ability to combine competitive pricing, rapid model development and its existing ecosystem to expand AI adoption and create additional avenues for monetization. GOOG Price Action: Alphabet shares were up 0.53% at $336.71 during premarket trading on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Image via Shutterstock Read Also: AWS Says AI Costs Are Falling Up To 100x Every Few Months, Paving Way For Wider Adoption