Meta's Muse Could Generate $27 Billion a Year, Citi Says as AI Agent Usage Surges

Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) could generate more than $27 billion a year from its month-old Muse personal AI agent by 2030, according to Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C), as usage grows and the race to become consumers’ default AI agent intensifies. Muse has topped 6.6 million downloads since its Sept. 8 launch and reached 1.8 million daily active users. The app also reached No. 1 on Apple’s U.S. App Store within 10 days of launch. Citi said the growth is strengthening Muse’s first-mover advantage and could make it a new “front door to the internet,” according to Reuters. Citi Sees $23 Billion Commerce Business About $23 billion of Citi’s forecast comes from transaction-related revenue, compared with roughly $4.5 billion from subscriptions. Muse can search the web, compare products, book travel and make purchases with user approval. Meta President Dina Powell McCormick has said the company could make money from Muse through subscriptions or by taking a fee when the agent completes transactions or saves users money. That model already faces some resistance. Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) shut Muse out of its shopping site last month, highlighting a fight over whether retailers will allow outside agents to control the customer relationship. OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Chase the Same Prize Muse faces rivals with much larger existing AI audiences. OpenAI says ChatGPT reaches 1.2 billion users each week, while its new Dots agents can work continuously, operate their own cloud computers and connect with more than 4,000 apps. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) says Gemini has surpassed 1 billion monthly users. Gemini Spark is designed as a personal agent that can work around the clock across Google’s ecosystem. Anthropic merged Cowork into the main Claude experience in September, allowing users to hand off longer-running tasks that can continue after they close their laptop. Meta already reaches 3.6 billion people daily across its family of apps, according to the company, giving it a large distribution base for Muse. AI Spending Raises the Stakes The payoff matters as Meta spends heavily on AI infrastructure. The company expects 2026 capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. It spent $31.08 billion in the second quarter alone, when free cash flow fell to $784 million. Wells Fargo analyst Ken Gawrelski raised his Meta price target from $796 to $1,000 this week, the highest among analysts tracked by FactSet, as he expects AI-driven revenue to accelerate from 2028. Meta shares have climbed more than 20% since Muse debuted, leaving the company within striking distance of a $2 trillion valuation. Traders Don’t Expect Meta to Win the Model Race Polymarket gives Meta about a 2% chance of having the world’s best AI model at the end of 2026. Anthropic leads at roughly 49%, followed by Google at 43%. Citi’s thesis suggests Meta may not need to win that race. Its $27 billion forecast rests instead on whether consumers will trust Muse to spend their money. Image: Shutterstock Read Also: Nvidia Strength Is Masking ‘A Whole Lot of Pain’ in the Broader Market, David Rosenberg Says