80% Odds Micron Beats Every Analyst On Wall Street, This Model Says

Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) told investors in June to expect about $50 billion in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue. One independent research house thinks the company will beat not just that number next week, but every estimate on Wall Street. Tessara, a research platform that publishes graded forecasts, puts the odds at 80% that Micron revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 3 lands above $52.08 billion. That figure was the highest of 22 analyst estimates in Tessara’s Sept. 22 consensus snapshot. Its base case goes further: $56.2 billion. The bigger question is whether memory prices have risen so quickly that Wall Street’s models are already obsolete. How Far Above Wall Street Is the Micron Earnings Call? Micron guided for fourth-quarter revenue of $50 billion, plus or minus $1 billion, after reporting record third-quarter revenue of $41.46 billion. The company reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Sept. 30. Tessara’s analyst range runs from $49.97 billion to $52.08 billion, with an average of $50.82 billion. “We expect Micron’s revenue for fiscal Q4 2026, ended September 3, to exceed $52.08 billion,” Tessara said. Tessara’s base case of $56.2 billion sits about $6.2 billion above the midpoint of Micron’s guidance. The model also gives a 50% chance that revenue tops $54.5 billion. For context, Micron’s fourth-quarter revenue was $11.32 billion a year ago. If Tessara is right, Micron’s quarterly revenue would be nearly five times what it was a year ago, up about 396%. Read Also: EXCLUSIVE: Micron's AI Earnings Could Break the Old Memory Cycle, PurePlay ETFs CEO Says Memory Prices Are Doing the Heavy Lifting The argument rests on prices. The timing matters. Micron issued its guidance on June 24. Nine days later, on July 3, research firm TrendForce forecast that conventional DRAM contract prices would rise 13% to 18% in the July-to-September period. In other words, the price forecast came after the guidance. In addition, Micron’s Taiwanese rivals have been growing faster. According to Tessara, four Taiwanese memory makers posted average monthly revenue in June through August 40% above March through May, measured in Taiwan dollars. By contrast, Micron’s guidance midpoint implies about 12% growth once the extra week is stripped out. The Biggest Risk To the Micron Beat There is one important catch: Micron has already locked significant memory volumes into long-term customer contracts. Its strategic agreements cover roughly 20% of DRAM volume and one-third of NAND volume over their terms. Micron said its largest agreements generally cap prices around second-quarter market levels. That limits how much of the recent memory inflation Micron can capture. Tessara deducts $1.37 billion from its model for those price caps and another $1.02 billion to avoid double-counting pricing already captured earlier. And management may simply have anticipated more of the price increase than the model assumes. “If guidance proves accurate, our call fails,” Tessara said. That’s what could make Sept. 30 unusually revealing. Revenue above $52.08 billion would suggest memory pricing and demand are moving faster than even Wall Street’s most bullish forecasts. But Tessara stresses that this is a revenue call, not a stock-price prediction. Margins, pricing commentary and Micron’s next-quarter outlook could ultimately matter more for how shares react. Read Also: Is Micron Stock Now The Biggest Value Play on Wall Street? Photo: Samuel Boivin / Shutterstock