Micron’s Big Earnings Test Is Here, Analyst Sees a Beat-And-Raise As AI Memory Stays Scarce

Micron Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) stock gained by more than 1% during Tuesday’s premarket session as traders lean into the stock’s still-bullish longer-term uptrend and position ahead of a near-term catalyst.Nasdaq futures are down 0.01% while S&P 500 futures have shed 0.08%.The company heads into its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Sept. 30 with analysts expecting tight memory supply, stronger pricing and AI-driven demand to support earnings, margins and guidance.Wall Street expects earnings of $31.45 per share, up from $3.03 a year earlier. Revenue is expected to reach $50.75 billion, compared with $11.31 billion in the prior-year period.JPMorgan Sees Beat-And-Raise PotentialJPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur reiterated an Overweight rating and $1,540 price forecast, expecting Micron to outperform August-quarter Street estimates of $51.4 billion in revenue, 86.2% gross margin and $31.73 in EPS.Sur expects DRAM average selling prices to rise more than 20% sequentially, while NAND pricing could increase about 20% as high-capacity enterprise SSD supply remains tight.He also expects Micron’s data-center revenue to exceed its May-quarter annualized run rate of more than $100 billion, with data-center SSD revenue remaining above $5 billion.For the November quarter, Sur expects guidance above consensus forecasts of $56.3 billion in revenue, 86.5% gross margin and $35.71 in EPS.JPMorgan estimates the HBM market could reach $160 billion in 2027 and $282 billion in 2028. Its analysis points to HBM shortages of 20% in 2026, 19% in 2027 and 16% in 2028.Sur also projects more than $24 billion in August-quarter free cash flow, up from $18.3 billion in May, and sees future share repurchases as another potential value driver. See More: Top Value Stocks Bank of America Focuses On Margin DurabilityBank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya reiterated a Buy rating and $1,550 price forecast.Arya said the key question heading into earnings is whether Micron can sustain gross margins in the mid-80% range through fiscal 2027, rather than near-term memory pricing.He estimates margins at that level could support fiscal 2027 EPS of $150 to $200, more than double earnings from the current fiscal year.At those earnings levels, Arya said Micron could trade near seven times forward earnings, compared with the roughly 10 times multiple the company has historically sustained.BMO Sees Memory Supercycle ContinuingBMO analyst Harsh Kumar, who carries an Outperform rating and $1,300 price forecast, raised his estimates after memory pricing exceeded his expectations.Kumar said one distributor estimated demand at roughly three times available supply and expects the industry to remain undersupplied throughout 2027 and potentially into 2028.He sees agentic AI driving stronger server DRAM demand, particularly for DDR5, while growing HBM production further constrains conventional DRAM supply.Kumar expects NAND flash could become the next major bottleneck and potentially post the strongest price increases next year.He also sees limited near-term relief from additional supply because new fabrication plants typically require two to three years to build and cost roughly $8 billion to $10 billion.The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $1541.09. Recent analyst moves include: Wedbush: Outperform (Maintains forecast to $1400.00) (Sept. 28) Baird: Outperform (Raises forecast to $1520.00) (Sept. 28) Rosenblatt: Buy (Maintains forecast to $1500.00) (Sept. 24) Micron Top ETF Exposure iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX): 8.78% Weight Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXQ): 8.80% Weight State Street SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (NYSE:XNTK): 8.87% Weight Significance: Because MU carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.Micron Price ActionMU Stock Price Activity: Micron Technology shares were up 1.38% at $1068.50 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro data.Photo via Shutterstock Read Also: Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, S&P 500 Futures Slip, Nasdaq 100 Gains as Trump Dismisses Iran Sanction Relief as 'Hoax' — NVDA, AAR, MTN in Focus