ON Semiconductor’s $100 Bull Case Runs Into a Bearish Chart

ON Semiconductor Corp (NASDAQ:ON) shares are trading down almost 2% on Wednesday as chip stocks track a risk-off tape and traders lean defensive. The Nasdaq is down 1.05% while the S&P 500 has shed 0.55%, and Technology is also lagging with a 1.0% loss. Seaport Global analyst Jay Goldberg initiated coverage with a Buy rating and set a price target of $100. The analyst notes that Onsemi is benefiting from improving industrial and automotive demand for analog semiconductors, while gross margins are also improving. Goldberg also views Onsemi’s Synaptics deal more favorably than the broader Street, citing potential opportunities to expand into digital logic, enter new markets, and generate gross margin synergies over time. The company is well positioned to benefit from the expected 800V data center buildout in 2027 and 2028, the analyst adds. Read Also: ON Semiconductor Pens Deal with Valen Semiconductor ON Technical Setup: Below Key SMAs, Support and Resistance From a trend perspective, ON is sitting in a mixed-to-bearish structure: it’s trading 6.5% below its 50-day SMA and 8.1% below its 200-day SMA, even as it holds just 1.4% above the 20-day SMA. That combination often reads like a short-term stabilization attempt inside a larger downtrend. The bigger-picture warning remains the "death cross" that occurred in September (the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA), which typically keeps overhead supply in play on rebounds. The most recent swing high in July followed by a swing low in September fits that "lower-high/lower-low" rhythm technicians watch in downtrends. RSI is the cleaner momentum lens right now: at 47.95, it’s neutral, suggesting the stock isn’t stretched enough to force a snapback, but it’s also not washed out. In plain terms, RSI helps gauge whether selling or buying has become overdone; here, it points to a market still deciding rather than capitulating. Key Resistance: $76.00 — a nearby round-number area that also sits below the 50-day average zone, where rebounds can stall Key Support: $71.00 — a nearby floor close to current levels where buyers have previously stepped in, making it a key "line in the sand" for a deeper breakdown ON Earnings Preview and Analyst Price Targets to Watch Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the November 2, 2026 (estimated) earnings report. EPS Estimate: 88 cents (Up from 63 cents YoY) Revenue Estimate: $1.70 Billion (Up from $1.55 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 48.1x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy rating with an average price forecast of $105.05. Recent analyst moves include: Seaport Global: Initiated with Buy (Target $100.00) (Sept. 23) Truist Securities: Hold (Lowers Target to $75.00) (Sept. 18) Stifel: Hold (Lowers Target to $75.00) (Sept. 17) Benzinga Edge: ON Scores for Momentum, Value, Growth Below is the Benzinga Edge scorecard for ON Semiconductor, highlighting its strengths and weaknesses compared to the broader market: Momentum: Neutral (Score: 58.18) — The stock is showing middle-of-the-pack trend strength, consistent with a choppy stabilization attempt rather than a clean uptrend. Quality: Neutral (Score: 59.54) — Fundamentals screen as steady, but not strong enough on their own to override the current technical headwinds. Value: Neutral (Score: 52.54) — Valuation looks closer to the market middle than a deep-value setup, so buyers may still want technical confirmation. Growth: Neutral (Score: 43.7) — Growth scoring is softer, which can make the stock more sensitive to macro slowdowns and multiple compression. The Verdict: ON Semiconductor’s Benzinga Edge signal reveals a mostly balanced, middle-of-the-road profile with no single factor screaming leadership right now. For longer-term bulls, the cleaner setup would be improving momentum alongside a reclaim of key moving averages; until then, the chart still argues for patience and defined risk near support. Top ETF Exposure: QCLN, IGTR, and EPMV Weightings First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (NASDAQ:QCLN): 6.34% Weight Innovator Gradient Tactical Rotation Strategy ETF (NYSE:IGTR): 1.60% Weight Harbor Mid Cap Value ETF (NYSE:EPMV): 2.36% Weight Significance: Because ON carries significant weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock. ON Stock Today: Shares Lower in Wednesday Trading ON Stock Price Activity: ON Semiconductor shares were down 1.35% at $72.61 at the time of publication on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Photo via Shutterstock