The Insider Report: Markets Wade into Geopolitical Abyss

Market Overview Stocks got hit hard last week as the market is no longer buying TACO pivots. The Nasdaq led the rout lower, finishing down 3.23%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 2.12% and 0.90% lower, respectively. Energy is absolutely dominating the tape, and the only game in house right now is commodities. Liquidity looks very vulnerable right now, and we may be a couple of weeks from a formal policy response, especially if things start to really break. If it happens, it'll be very fast. Stocks I Like Palantir (PLTR) – 32% Return Potential What's Happening Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is a leading software company providing AI-powered data analytics and decision intelligence platforms, enabling organizations across government, defense, healthcare, and commercial industries to integrate, analyze, and act on complex data at scale, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and enterprise software sector with a focus on mission-critical applications and operational transformation. The company had revenue of $1.41 billion in the last quarter, along with $647.97 million in earnings. The valuation in PLTR is very elevated. P/E is at 255.30, Price-to-Sales is at 92.19, and EV to EBITDA is at 262.28. At a technical level, PLTR is pressing up into technical resistance of the saucer formation. If it clears resistance, it should lead to another leg higher in prices. Why It's Happening Palantir Technologies Inc. is experiencing explosive commercial acceleration with its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), delivering 137% year-over-year U.S. commercial revenue growth in Q4 2025 to $507 million and a record $1.34 billion in U.S. commercial total contract value. This surge reflects enterprises rapidly adopting Palantir's AI tools to transform operations across industries, creating a self-reinforcing flywheel of customer expansions and new wins that is redefining how large organizations harness AI for real-world impact. Record-breaking overall growth and profitability mark Palantir's transition into a mature, high-margin powerhouse. Q4 2025 revenue reached $1.41 billion (up 70% year-over-year), while full-year 2025 grew 56%, with adjusted operating income hitting $798 million at a 57% margin and a Rule of 40 score of 127%. This combination of hyper-growth and exceptional profitability demonstrates the scalability of Palantir's software platform and its ability to deliver compounding value as AI adoption deepens. Ambitious 2026 guidance signals management's confidence in sustained acceleration. The company is forecasting roughly 61% revenue growth for the full year, driven by continued U.S. commercial momentum and expanding government programs. This outlook paints a picture of Palantir evolving into a multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure leader, with its platforms becoming indispensable for both enterprise efficiency and national security missions. Real-world AI applications in defense and beyond strengthen Palantir's strategic importance. From powering precision decision-making in ongoing conflicts to new partnerships like the Polymarket sports-integrity platform, Palantir's technology is moving from experimental pilots to mission-critical deployments. This traction across government and commercial frontiers cements its role as a foundational AI player at the intersection of national security and enterprise innovation. Diversified ecosystem and platform maturity create multiple long-term growth engines. With deepening integrations for data labeling (Toloka), autonomous systems, and industry-specific solutions, Palantir is building an interconnected AI ecosystem that extends far beyond its original data-analytics roots. This breadth positions the company to capture value across the entire AI lifecycle as organizations increasingly rely on its software to turn data into decisive action. Analyst Ratings: UBS: Buy Wedbush: Outperform Rosenblatt: Buy My Action Plan (32% Return Potential) I am bullish on PLTR above $128.00-$130.00. My upside target is $190.00-$200.00. Energous Corp (WATT) – 38% Return Potential What's Happening Energous Corporation (WATT) is a leading developer of over-the-air wireless charging technology, providing Radio Frequency (RF)-based Wireless Power Network solutions that enable convenient, battery-free power delivery to IoT devices, sensors, and electronic systems, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing wireless power transfer and Internet of Things sector with a focus on innovative semiconductor and antenna technologies. The last quarterly report showed revenue of $1.27 million, but a loss of $2.11 million. Valuation is steep in WATT is high, with Price-to-Sales at 6.31 and a Book Value at 6.31. From a technical point of view, WATT is trying to breakout from a massive saucer base. This points to a significantly bigger move being underway in this name. Why It's Happening Energous Corporation is experiencing a transformational commercial breakthrough in over-the-air wireless power, delivering record preliminary 2025 revenue of approximately $5.6 million—representing more than 630% year-over-year growth and the highest annual revenue in the company's history. This surge reflects successful shipments to multiple customers, including two Fortune 10 companies, as the company shifts from years of development to meaningful product deployments and platform expansion. Explosive quarterly momentum underscores Energous' accelerating adoption, with preliminary Q4 2025 revenue reaching approximately $3.0 million—a 139% increase from the prior quarter and the highest quarterly revenue since 2015. These shipments, combined with an expanding order backlog and active proof-of-concepts through its AWS partnership, demonstrate real-world traction for its WattUp technology across consumer and industrial applications. Regulatory milestone in Europe opens a major new growth runway for Energous. The recent approval of its PowerBridge Pro directional wireless power transmitter for commercialization across the entire European Union and United Kingdom enables the company to pursue international markets with its 2W conducted power solution, broadening its addressable customer base and supporting further global platform expansion. Strengthened financial position provides Energous with the stability to scale its wireless power ecosystem. The company raised approximately $23.9 million in equity capital during 2025 while eliminating debt and certain liabilities, dramatically improving its balance sheet and enabling continued investment in product innovation, manufacturing ramp, and commercial deployments without the overhang of prior constraints. Dramatic improvement in operating performance highlights Energous' path toward sustainable operations. The company expects its net loss to decrease by more than 45% year-over-year for 2025, driven by increased scale, improved cost discipline, and higher revenue conversion—marking a clear inflection as its over-the-air wireless power networks transition from prototype to production reality. WATT is a candidate for a short squeeze with over 14% of its floated shares being sold short. Analyst Ratings: Ladenburg Thalman: Buy Roth MKM: Buy My Action Plan (38% Return Potential) I am bullish on WATT above $15.00-$16.00. My upside target is $20.00-$22.00. Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON) – 43% Return Potential What's Happening Eton Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ETON) is a leading specialty pharmaceutical company focused on developing, acquiring, and commercializing innovative treatments for rare diseases, offering investors exposure to the rapidly growing rare disease therapeutics and specialty pharmaceuticals sector with a focus on addressing unmet medical needs in pediatric and endocrine conditions. The company's last quarterly report showed revenue of $21.28 million and earnings of $5.36 million. Valuation in ETON is high. Price-to-Sales is 8.01 while Book Value is just 0.96. From a charting standpoint, ETON is looking to gather more upside momentum after a clean breakout from a saucer formation. Why It's Happening Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc. is delivering exceptional revenue acceleration in the rare disease space, posting 83% year-over-year product sales growth to $21.3 million in Q4 2025, contributing to full-year revenue that more than doubled versus 2024. This strong commercial execution reflects successful launches and portfolio expansion in high-value orphan indications. The recent launch of DESMODA, the first and only FDA-approved oral liquid desmopressin, along with the acquisition of HEMANGEOL, significantly strengthens Eton's commercial portfolio and is expected to drive meaningful incremental revenue and earnings accretion in 2026 and beyond. Management has set ambitious yet achievable 2026 targets of over $110 million in revenue and Adjusted EBITDA margins exceeding 30%, signaling a clear inflection toward high-margin, scalable profitability as the company leverages its growing rare disease franchise. Eton's focused strategy on acquiring and commercializing differentiated therapies for rare pediatric and endocrine disorders creates multiple near-term catalysts through label expansions and pipeline advancement, building a diversified, high-margin product portfolio in areas with limited competition. With a proven ability to execute on product launches and integrations, Eton is well-positioned to become a leading player in the U.S. rare disease market, offering investors exposure to sustainable revenue growth and improving profitability in an underserved therapeutic area. The stock could experience a notable short squeeze as +20% of its floated shares are being sold short. Analyst Ratings: B. Riley Securities: Buy HC Wainwright: Buy Craig-Hallum: Buy My Action Plan (43% Return Potential) I am bullish on ETON above $20.50-$21.00. My upside target is $33.00-34.00. Market-Moving Catalysts for the Week Ahead Positioning for a Cataclysm Fear levels are rising faster and faster, and market participants are positioning for it. Global energy supplies have been seriously disrupted, and the spread between WTI oil (U.S. based) and Brent oil (Internationally based) is at decade-plus highs. The positioning in markets reflects this as well. The total put:call ratio has surged in favor of puts, as both traders and investors rush to purchase protection. This confirms the fear in the market, but it's often observed at key market inflection points. The thing about fear is that it paralyzes most traders. There's a common phrase to, "Buy when there's blood in the streets," but few actually manage to do so. This could easily be one of those opportunities– we've been looking for the best buying opportunity of the year – and it's just around the corner. Stagflation Risks Stagflation risks have surged due to the Iran conflict, which has driven oil prices higher and reignited inflation pressures. With Federal Reserve projections showing 2026 real GDP growth dwindling, PCE inflation stuck around 2.7% (well above the 2% target), and unemployment hovering near 4.4%, the economy faces the classic stagflation trap of sluggish expansion paired with persistent price increases. This scenario complicates monetary policy, as aggressive rate cuts to spur growth could fuel further inflation, while tighter policy risks tipping the economy into recession. The Fed is truly trapped now and it seems that Powell understood that at the last press conference. This threatens consumer purchasing power, squeezes corporate margins, and keeps financial markets volatile. The potential "K-shaped" recovery that widens inequality remains in play—but for now, still far milder than the 1970s crisis. Sector & Industry Strength Not much has changed in the tape since last week. Just over half of the S&P sectors are positive year-to-date, it paints a pretty stark picture. To make the situation even worse, all of the growth sectors like tech (XLK), communications (XLC), and consumer discretionary (XLY) are negative on the year. The market's second-largest sector, financials (XLF), are down double digits on the year. This means that along with tech, which is the largest sector, the most consequential sectors for the market are in negative territory. Energy (XLE) continues to absolutely dominate the tape year-to-date. There's a +40% performance spread between XLE and XLF. Utilities (XLU) are holding strong in second place despite getting sold hard last week too. Bulls still have work to do. 1 week3 Weeks13 Weeks26 WeeksEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy Editor's Note: The inflationary flush continues. Leadership Reaches Inflection Point (Sector ETF: XLE/XLK) While the market lives and dies by the tech sector, there's been a notable shift in some of the capital flows within the S&P 500. This week, I'm looking at the ratio between energy (XLE) and the tech sector (XLK). While energy's outperformance can present challenges for the indices, it doesn't automatically disqualify the potential for stocks to stay bid. Look at how XLE outperformed XLK in 2021 – it was late in the market rally, but stocks indeed continued higher. The ratio is coming up on a key resistance zone after potentially flipping the trend after breaking out from the rounding bottom formation. If a lower-high here forms with respect to the longer-term trend, then look for stocks to start performing well again. Otherwise, the grind and chop can continue. Chips Continue Signaling Confidence (Sector ETF: SMH/QQQ) With everything going on, it would be wise to check back in on the most important chart driving this bull market: the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). The theme here is artificial intelligence, and chips are leading the way. The ratio maintains a clear uptrend with a series of higher-highs and higher-lows. It pulled back hard a couple weeks ago, but formed yet another higher-low, which only serves to reinforce the bull trend in favor of the bulls. The breakout from the wedge pattern at the end of last year tells the real story. Disregard the rest of the noise. As long as this ratio keeps rising, the market is offering gifts in terms of dip-buying opportunities. Junk Remains Resilient (Sector ETF: HYG/IEI) Rumors continue to swirl of a massive private credit crisis brewing, and while the headlines may be scary, the bond market seems to be largely shrugging it off, especially when you look at what's happening in junk debt. There's actually been remarkable resiliency in junk debt (HYG) compared to 3-7 Year Treasuries (IEI). Normally, if stocks were about to implode, we'd see a big selloff in junk debt, which would correspond to a big drop in this ratio. Interestingly, it's high quality corporate debt that has fared much worse. Bigger picture, we're still seeing this ratio consolidate near the highs of the saucer formation. If this clears resistance, look for liquidity conditions to improve significantly. Cryptocurrency Let's shift gears back to Ethereum this week. There's been a nice rally in cryptocurrencies over the past couple of weeks despite the broader market volatility. Of course, this could just be a dead-cat bounce within a greater downtrend, but there are signs that momentum is starting to shift. It's still very early but we did print a higher-high and a higher-low recently, which is often a signal that the trend is starting to shift bullish. However, bigger picture, a lower-high could have easily been complete, which could keep the bears emboldened through time. Prices continue to trade within the descending price channel too. These are continuation patterns and as long as they remain within the channel, don't be surprised to see it keep dropping. If it closes above 2600-2800, it would signal bulls finally flipped it. Otherwise, stay open-minded for a drop to 1300-1400. Legal Disclosures: This communication is provided for information purposes only. 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