Palantir Stock Soars 60% in Q3 After First-Half Rout: Can Earnings Keep the Rally Going?

Palantir Technologies Inc (NASDAQ:PLTR) stock rose 60.32% in the July-to-September quarter to $187.05, but is still about 10% below its 52-week high of $207.52. The company will report third-quarter financial results on Nov. 2. Last quarter, its U.S. commercial and U.S. government segments were about $45 million apart in revenue, and the new report will show where they stand. Palantir has operated primarily as a defense and intelligence software vendor throughout its corporate history. Reaching a higher revenue figure in the commercial sector would signal a broader transition into a commercial software enterprise. Palantir Stock Recovers Palantir stock fell 30.49% in the first half of 2026, from $167.86 on Jan. 2 to $116.67 on June 30. It dropped 12.85% in the January-to-March quarter to $146.28, then fell 20.24% from April to June. U.S. Commercial and Government Revenue Narrow Gap Palantir reported second-quarter results on Aug. 3 after the closing bell. U.S. commercial revenue rose 149% year over year to $764 million. U.S. government revenue rose 90% to $809 million. Q2 Results and Company Forecast Total revenue rose 93% to $1.94 billion, above analyst estimates of $1.80 billion. Adjusted earnings were 41 cents per share, versus estimates of 35 cents. Palantir issued guidance, which is the company’s own financial forecast. For the third quarter, it expects revenue of $2.160 billion to $2.164 billion and adjusted income from operations of $1.292 billion to $1.296 billion. It raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.150 billion to $8.158 billion. It also expects U.S. commercial revenue above $3.424 billion, growth of at least 134%. Maven Smart System Draws Scrutiny Bloomberg reported on Sept. 19 that Pentagon investigators found flawed intelligence, outdated imagery and overreliance on artificial intelligence contributed to a Feb. 28 U.S. missile strike on an elementary school in Minab, Iran. The strike killed more than 150 people, including at least 123 children. Bloomberg reported that some U.S. Central Command personnel relied on AI in Palantir’s Maven Smart System. A Palantir spokesperson said the company “is not responsible for the underlying data nor identifying intelligence deficiencies” and that there is no evidence its software was at fault. A Pentagon spokesperson told Bloomberg the incident remains under investigation. Analyst Ratings on Palantir Stock Benzinga’s analyst consensus rating for Palantir is a buy. Of 21 analysts, 15 rate the stock a buy, five rate it a hold and one rates it a sell. The average price forecast is $197, which implies 4.6% upside. PLTR Stock Price Activity: Palantir shares are trading higher by 1.04% at $188.99 during premarket trading on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Photo: Samuel Boivin / Shutterstock