Will Iran Lose Control Of Kharg Island? Here's What Prediction Market Is Saying

Kharg Island, crucial for Iran's crude oil exports, is facing potential U.S. military action as President Trump has warned of more strikes following recent attacks on military targets there. The prediction market Polymarket shows that bettors currently assign a 12% probability to Iran losing control of the island by March 31, while 43% believe the U.S. may gain control by April 30. Over $1.2 million has been wagered on these outcomes, indicating a lack of confidence in a swift U.S. takeover.