Shopify Price Hikes Signal Pricing Power as JPMorgan Keeps $200 Bullish Target

Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) has reportedly increased pricing for its Grow and Advanced plans, according to JPMorgan. The company increased the Grow plan by 13% or $10 and the Advanced plan by 20% or $60, respectively, as per a Friday note by analyst Bryan Smilek. The firm tracks pricing changes for the U.S. merchants and the increase observed on Oct. 15 compares to prices in early October. Smilek continues to maintain an Overweight rating with the price forecast of $200, most recently raised on Oct. 6. • Shopify shares are sliding. Why is SHOP stock dropping? Expects Incremental Annualized Revenue Uplift The analyst estimates that the price increases could generate more than $40 million in incremental annualized revenue over time, assuming nearly 65% of non-Plus merchants use monthly plans and the raises are eventually rolled out globally. Separately, previously announced Shopify Plus price increases, scheduled to take effect in 2027, could contribute over $90 million in incremental annualized Subscription Solutions revenue in 2027. Smilek expects minimal churn risk across SMB merchants or Plus merchants due to price increase. The firm reiterated Shopify’s significant value proposition to businesses across e-commerce enablement, Payments, and other merchant-oriented vectors. The analysts believe the company enjoys a healthy pricing power and monetization model. The firm though expects the company to continue to prioritize enhancing the merchant experience and capturing incremental GMV/GPV. AI-related Cost Headwinds The analyst estimated that AI/token consumption could drive an 180 basis points and nearly 40 basis points year-on-year headwind to the company’s 2026 Subscription and Total Gross margins. The firm expects Plus price increases to drive high-margin MRR and help offset AI-related cost headwinds. Analyst considers Shopify to be well-positioned as an AI beneficiary with leadership across the three layers of the agentic commerce stack: Channels, On-Platform and Infrastructure. He highlighted the introduction of Shop Pay on Muse, through which the buyer maintains control and Shopify enabled a connector that allows merchants to manage orders, inventory and analytics directly in Muse. The firm remains bullish on stock and raised its second-half 2026 and 2027 estimates by ~1% to 3% across Revenue, ~1% to 2% across Gross Profit, and ~1% to 2% across FCF. Earnings and Analyst Outlook Wall Street expects Shopify to report third-quarter earnings of 46 cents per share, up from 34 cents a year earlier. Revenue is projected to reach $3.75 billion, up from $2.84 billion in the year-ago period. Analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating, with an average price forecast of $171.38. Recent analyst actions include RBC Capital maintaining an Outperform rating with a $200 price forecast on Oct. 16, Baird maintaining an Outperform rating and raising its forecast to $190 on Oct. 14 and Cantor Fitzgerald maintaining a Neutral rating with a $158 forecast on Oct. 12. See More: Top Growth Stocks Technical Analysis Even with Friday’s dip, Shopify is still in a firmly bullish longer-term structure. The stock is trading 9.5% above its 20-day SMA ($158.10), 15.8% above its 50-day SMA ($149.42), and 33.4% above its 200-day SMA ($129.71). The 20-day SMA remains above the 50-day SMA, and the golden cross that occurred in August (50-day moving above the 200-day) continues to support the "uptrend intact" read on pullbacks. Momentum has improved. The MACD is above its signal line, while the histogram is positive. Both indicators suggest buying momentum is strengthening. Key Resistance: $182 — Round-number area sitting just below the 52-week high ($182.19) Key Support: $144 — prior buyer-defense zone Shopify Price Action SHOP Price Action: Shopify shares were down 4.51% at $170.11 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Image via Shutterstock Read Also: Nasdaq 100 Slides As Micron, SanDisk, CoreWeave Sink: Stock Market Today