Spider-Man Trailer May Drive Sony Stock Gains: Prediction Market Bets On 2026's Top-Grossing Film

A trailer for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" was released on Wednesday, leaving social media and the internet abuzz ahead of its July theatrical release. The latest Spider-Man film could mean big things for movie theaters and for shares of The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) and Sony Group Corp (NYSE:SONY). Spider Man Box Office Success Over the last several decades, multiple Spider-Man films have been released, with different directors and actors portraying the web-slinging superhero from Marvel Comics. The latest series features Tom Holland portraying Spider Man/Peter Parker and the three films have been box office hits. Here is the box office for the last three standalone Spider Man films, as reported by BoxOfficeMojo: Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017): $335.0 million domestic, $881.0 million worldwide Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019): $391.3 million domestic, $1.13 billion worldwide Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021): $814.9 million domestic, $1.92 billion worldwide Each of the three films ranked in the top 10 in their respective years for domestic box office gross and worldwide gross. The 2021 film was number one both domestically and worldwide for 2021 and is also among the top 10 highest-grossing films ever. Along with those three films, Holland has also portrayed Spider-Man in several Avengers films. Sony had the exclusive movie rights to Spider-Man even before Disney acquired Marvel. The two companies reached a deal to share some film characters and share financing costs and revenue. Sony reaps the majority of the box office revenue from the Spider-Man films, while it receives financing help from Disney, and Disney gets the majority of merchandise revenue from the hit character. What's Next for Sony? "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" releases in theaters on July 31, during the busy summer box office season. The film is expected to once again be one of the top-grossing films of the year. On prediction market Polymarket, the film ranks second for the market for the top-grossing film domestically in 2026 at 30% odds. Ranking ahead of "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" on Polymarket is "Super Mario Galaxy Movie" at 37% odds. The new Spider-Man film has ranked first in the prediction market many times since December, but recently fell to second place. The new Super Mario film opens on April 1, which could provide a benchmark of what the new Spider-Man film needs to open with to have a shot at finishing first. The previous Super Mario film grossed $575.0 million domestically and $1.36 billion worldwide, ranking second domestically and worldwide in 2023, trailing "Barbie." While the entertainment segment of Sony might not be its biggest or most well-known, the company is behind many hit TV shows and distributes box-office hits each year. The company has several movies in 2026 that could help boost its entertainment sector, including the new Spider-Man film, "GOAT," which has made $91.3 million domestically since Feb. 13, and an untitled Jumanji sequel in December. Sony's only top-five-grossing film domestically since the 2021 Spider-Man film was "Spider-Man: Across the Universe" in 2023, an animated film in the superhero franchise. Sony's top-grossing film in 2025 was "Demon Slayer," ranking 18th domestically at $134.5 million. Sony Stock Price Action Sony stock closed at $20.38 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $20.32 to $30.34, with new 52-week lows hit during the intraday session. Sony stock is down 20.9% year-to-date in 2026. Photo by RYO Alexandre via Shutterstock