Wall Street’s Favorite AI Trade Is Up 89% This Year: Its Best Season Starts Today

September is usually the worst month of the year for chip stocks. This year, it was one of the best. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) rose 11.3% in September 2026, its second-best September since 2001. Only September 2010 was stronger, with a 14.9% gain. The calendar now turns in the sector’s favor. Over the past 25 years, the five months from October to February have been the best stretch of the year to own semiconductor stocks. October To February Is The Best Window To Own Chip Stocks SOXX enters October up 88.8% in 2026, making semiconductors the best-performing industry in the U.S. stock market this year. From October to February, SOXX gained an average of 2.4% a month. From March to September, the average was 0.7% a month. In other words, the ETF has earned close to four times more per month in the colder half of the calendar. Measured as a full season, the October-to-February window returned an average of 12.5% across 25 seasons since 2001. The median gain was 12%. The window ended higher in 21 of those 25 seasons. That is a success rate of 84%. The most recent season, from October 2025 to February 2026, delivered a 29.9% gain. November stands out within the window. SOXX has gained an average of 5.2% in November, the highest of any calendar month. The ETF rose in 19 of 25 Novembers, or 76% of the time. Only May matches that hit rate, with a lower average gain of 4.9%. Some Novembers were exceptional. SOXX jumped 23.8% in November 2002, 18.9% in November 2022 and 18.4% in November 2020. MonthAverage returnYears positiveJanuary1.35%56%February2.35%68%March0.85%52%April1.52%44%May4.85%76%June-0.72%44%July0.80%60%August-0.18%58%September-2.52%44%October2.98%60%November5.24%76%December0.28%56%Source: TradingView, SOXX monthly price returns, August 2001 to September 2026 Bank of America Names Its Top Chip Picks For The Season Bank of America sees the same pattern. In a note shared Tuesday, analyst Vivek Arya said the fourth and first calendar quarters have been the two best seasons to own chip stocks. From 2010 to 2025, chip stocks delivered “300-500bps of median outperformance vs. SPX” in those quarters, he said. In other words, they beat the S&P 500 by a median of 3 to 5 percentage points. Arya named five top picks with near-term catalysts. They are Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC), Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU), Marvell Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) and Lam Research Corp. (NASDAQ:LRCX). For Nvidia, the catalysts are larger buybacks and several GTC developer conferences. For Intel, it is rising demand for its processors in AI agents and a possible customer win for its contract manufacturing business. Micron is set to start buybacks in December. Marvell holds its Analyst Day on Oct. 6, while Lam Research could gain market share in equipment for both memory and logic chips. Read Also: Top 5 Semiconductor Stocks to Own Into Year End: Bank of America Photo: Shutterstock