$6 Trillion Triple Witching, Netanyahu's Perfect Timing Saves Market But Iran Keeps Firing

Line In The Sand Please click here for a chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that as the last trading hour approached yesterday, SPY was trading below 660 (S&P 500 6600). For many large funds, S&P 500 at 6600 is a line in the sand. 6600 was a very important level for S&P 500 as many large investors using different strategies were all converging on selling if it appeared S&P 500 was going to close below 6600. There were indications that a huge avalanche of selling was about to hit the stock market in the last hour of trading. Such selling would have pushed S&P 500 to the support zone shown on the chart in yesterday's Morning Capsule. In a stroke of perfect timing, news crossed the wires that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Iran "can no longer enrich uranium or manufacture ballistic missiles." The chart shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu's comment triggered extremely aggressive buying. The buying was from the momo crowd, not smart money. The chart shows our proprietary VUD indicator was negative as the momo crowd extremely aggressively bought stocks. The VUD indicator, a measure of net supply and demand in real-time, clearly showed that as the stock market rose, there was net supply of stocks. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand. Prime Minister Netanyahu also said that Israel would help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz and the war would end "a lot faster than people think." Prime Minister Netanhyau also provided cover for President Trump saying that Israel acted alone in attacking Iran's South Pars. When the momo crowd was extremely aggressively buying stocks, why was smart money sitting on the sidelines? Even if Prime Minister Netanyahu's claim that Iran can no longer manufacture ballistic missiles is true, Iran had plenty of existing ballistic missiles that it could use to continue firing. Iran has plenty of other weapons such as drones. A claim that Iran could no longer enrich uranium could be a pretext to declare victory, but in the immediate battle, no one is using nuclear bombs. Israel has no well known capabilities to open the Strait of Hormuz. Not long ago on March 9, President Trump said the war was a short excursion. The momo crowd interpreted it as the war was about to end and aggressively bought. However, the Iran war is still continuing. The chart shows that this morning, the stock market's hopium was dashed and a rethink occurred as Iran continued firing. Expect a lot of volatility today due to about $6T of notional value of triple witching. In triple witching, stock index futures, options on indexes, and options on stocks expire on the same day. In recent history, most triple witchings have been to the plus side. As of now, it is difficult to call this one. Friday also brings cross currents. Many short sellers cover because they do not want to take the risk of the weekend. This pushes the stock market higher. Similarly, many large stock market players trim or hedge long positions to reduce risk over the weekend, thus pushing the stock market to the downside. The last three Fridays have been down. Over the weekends, pumpers pumped stocks, and the momo crowd bought stocks aggressively on the following Mondays. On the positive side, FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) reported earnings above whisper numbers. FDX earnings are important because they are an indication of the state of the economy. The momo crowd is already sitting on huge losses on one of their favorite stocks Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI). Super Micro Computer makes AI servers. You may recall that at least twice, we highlighted the chart of SMCI stock in the Morning Capsules to illustrate the insanity of the momo crowd's actions. SMCI stock peaked above $120 (split adjusted). As full disclosure, we gave signals to short SMCI. SMCI closed at $30.79 and is trading at $23.27 as of this writing in the premarket. The U.S. government has charged a co-founder of SMCI and two other individuals for a brazen scheme to smuggle advanced Nvidia (NVDA) chips into China. Magnificent Seven Money Flows Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, it is important to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Nvidia (NVDA). In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ). Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO). Bitcoin Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound. What To Do Now Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions and add tactical positions based on signals. The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter. Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.