S&P 500 in the 'Sweet Spot' for Q4: Ryan Detrick Points to 'Above Average Returns,' Noting Gains in 18 of Last 21 Historical Setups

The S&P 500 index has historically produced “above average returns” in the fourth quarter when the S&P 500 is up 10%-20% through the end of the third quarter, according to Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group. Historical Precedents Point to Fourth-Quarter Gains Detrick stated on social media platform X that this performance range represents the “sweet spot” for year-end equity performance. Data published by Carson Investment Research showed that under these specific conditions, the index posted positive fourth-quarter returns in 18 out of 21 historical setups since 1950, yielding an 85.7% positive rate with an average fourth-quarter return of 5.3%. As of late Sept. 25, the S&P 500 was up 12.90% year to date. When the S&P 500 is up between 10-20% YTD (the sweet spot) heading into Q4, then Q4 has been higher 18 out of 21 times with above average returns. pic.twitter.com/6sn0LEKBF3— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 27, 2026 Read Also: S&P 500 Outlook: September is the 'Worst Month of the Year' but Ryan Detrick Says 2026 Could Defy the Odds Recent Track Record and Historical Averages Detrick highlighted that fourth-quarter performance has been “extremely strong lately,” noting that the S&P 500 finished higher in 12 of the past 13 years. According to Carson Investment Research data, the fourth-quarter average return over the last 13 years was 5.4%, with a median gain of 6.5%. Detrick noted that the single negative fourth quarter during this period occurred in 2018 when the index fell 14.0%, which he described as “the crash of 2018” and “the last time we had a midterm year under President Trump.” For all years since 1950, the average fourth-quarter S&P 500 gain is 4.2%, with positive returns occurring 80.3% of the time. Q4 has been extremely strong lately, higher 12 of the past 13 years.But something for everyone, as the one time it was lower? The crash of 2018, which was also the last time we had a midterm year under President Trump. pic.twitter.com/eF0YumXtbw— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 27, 2026 Market Drivers and Sector Performance During an episode of the “Facts Versus Feelings” podcast, Detrick stated that he expects a “strong fourth quarter” and maintains an overweight position in technology stocks. Detrick noted that technology comprises 39% of the S&P 500 and communication services accounts for another 11%. On the podcast, Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, stated that technology sector revenues are expected to grow 40% in the third quarter. Detrick added that market history over the last century demonstrates that technology tends to lead bull markets. How Has the Stock Market Performed? The S&P 500 index has advanced 13.12% year-to-date. Similarly, the Nasdaq Composite index was up 16.46%, and the Dow Jones gained 7.83% YTD. On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. SPY rose 0.54% to $771.35, while QQQ gained 0.46% to $744.50. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.94% higher at $517.49. Read Also: S&P 500 Could Deliver Another 6% by Year-End as JPMorgan Calls Bears an ‘Extinct Species’ — Polymarket Bettors Price 35% Odds Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Photo courtesy: Shutterstock