Top Economist Warns Recession Odds Are ‘Over 50-50’ as AI Bubble and Tightening Financial Conditions Raise Alarm: ‘Bubble Is Never in the Technology, But in the…’

David Rosenberg, Founder and President of Rosenberg Research, has indicated that the probability of a recession in the next year exceeds 50%, citing tightening financial conditions, declining real wages, and an investor-driven market bubble. He noted that broader financial conditions have tightened by 140 basis points in the last three months. Additionally, the September Consumer Price Index showed a 0.6% increase over the month and 3.7% over the past year, with real average hourly earnings declining by 0.5%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have seen year-to-date gains of 12.76% and 17.63%, respectively, but both closed lower recently.