Gene Munster Puts SpaceX-Tesla Merger Odds at 95%, but Says Elon Musk Is a ‘Conflicted’ Party: ‘He Can’t Be in the Conversation’

On Tuesday, analysts raised their expectations for a potential combination of Elon Musk’s Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX), citing strategic opportunities in artificial intelligence and data infrastructure. Munster, Ives Raise Tesla-SpaceX Merger Bets Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said the likelihood of a Tesla-SpaceX combination had increased, estimating a 95% chance of a deal within two years. "Believe me, shareholders would support this," Munster wrote on X, "Elon says there are special committees at request of shareholders to discuss the topic. He is a conflicted party so he can’t be in the conversation." Odds of $SPCX + $TSLA combo just inched up.The question came up on the call. Elon says he thinks it’s a good idea, and there are a lot of merits to combining the companies, but shareholders still have to be supportive.Believe me, shareholders would support this. Elon says…— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) October 20, 2026 Yorkville Ives partner and Senior Managing Director Dan Ives put the odds at 80% to 90% by the end of 2027, pointing to strategic opportunities tied to AI and data. "We believe there is an 80%-90% chance that Tesla and SpaceX merge by the end of 2027," Ives wrote on X, adding that committees at both companies were evaluating the potential deal. We believe there is an 80%-90% chance that Tesla and SpaceX merge by the end of 2027 for a number of strategic AI and data-driven reasons and this is the right move for Musk. Board Committees on both Tesla and SpaceX analyzing deal merits and price. 🏆🚀🐂— Dan Ives (@DivesTech) October 21, 2026 Read Also: SpaceX Is Launching More Than Satellites: The Next Frontier Is Space Cybersecurity Musk Says Tesla-SpaceX Merger Isn’t Certain The statements came after Musk cautioned during the earnings call against treating a SpaceX-Tesla merger as a certainty. "I don’t think we should necessarily assume that—some people out there assume that a SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty, and I think that would be overstating it," Musk said, adding that he believes a combination would make strategic sense. The tech mogul cited potential benefits in superintelligence software, chip design, the Terafab project, robotics, space launches and Starlink connectivity. However, he stressed that any deal would depend on the committees reaching an agreement and shareholders approving it. He said Tesla would need votes representing at least 50% of all outstanding shares, not just those cast. Earlier in the day, SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, beating analyst estimates of $12.74 billion, while earnings came in at 35 cents per share versus expectations of 12 cents. Revenue increased 161% year over year. Its Super Intelligence business generated $7.6 billion, up 830%, while connectivity revenue, including Starlink, rose 69% to $5.2 billion. The space business generated $1.8 billion, up 6%. Price Action: Shares closed Tuesday at $147.79 before jumping 8.06% to $159.79 in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro. According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, SpaceX shows positive medium- and long-term price trends but a negative short-term trend. Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors. Read Also: Elon Musk Would Still Be 2.4X Richer Than Jeff Bezos After Gifting SpaceX Stock to American Kids Photo Courtesy: cristiano barni on Shutterstock.com