Taiwan Semiconductor Eyes Cutting-Edge 3nm Production In Japan By 2028

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. (NYSE:TSM) plans to begin equipment installation and mass production of advanced 3-nanometer chips at its second Japan facility in 2028, according to a Taiwanese government filing. CEO C.C. Wei said in February the company aims to produce 3nm chips at the plant following a meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. The second fab is expected to have a monthly capacity of 15,000 12-inch wafers using 3nm technology, marking a shift from earlier plans focused on mature nodes, Reuters reported on Wednesday. In 2024, Taiwan Semiconductor said total investment in its first and second Japan fabs would exceed $20 billion. A Yomiuri report estimated the second plant could cost about $17 billion, though the company has not confirmed the figure. The first Japan fab began volume production in late 2024. Technical Analysis TSM is trading 0.3% above its 20-day SMA, but 1.9% below its 50-day SMA, while still sitting 5.5% above its 100-day SMA—suggesting the longer-term uptrend is intact even as the intermediate trend is being tested. Shares have gained 100.40% over the past 12 months, and the stock is closer to its 52-week highs than its lows, trading in the $134.25 to $390.20 range. RSI is at 47.74, which sits in neutral territory and suggests consolidation rather than a strong trend day. Meanwhile, MACD is at -5.9455 and remains below its signal line at -4.3635, keeping bearish pressure in place until that spread starts to narrow. The combination of RSI in the 30–50 range (47.74) and bearish MACD suggests mixed momentum. Key Resistance: $380.00 Key Support: $332.00 Earnings & Analyst Outlook Looking further out, the next major catalyst for the stock arrives with the April 16, 2026 (estimated) earnings report. EPS Estimate: $3.27 (Up from $2.12 YoY) Revenue Estimate: $35.40 Billion (Up from $25.53 Billion YoY) Valuation: P/E of 32.7x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers) Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $401.67. Recent analyst moves include: DA Davidson: Initiated with Buy (Target $450.00) (February 13) Barclays: Overweight (Raises Target to $450.00) (January 16) TD Cowen: Hold (Raises Target to $370.00) (January 16) Top ETF Exposure Invesco FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE:PXH): 6.23% Weight Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (NYSE:IVES): 5.81% Weight Harbor International Compounders ETF (NYSE:OSEA): 6.88% Weight Significance: Because TSM carries such a heavy weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows will likely trigger automatic buying or selling of the stock. Price Action TSM Price Action: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were up 1.59% at $343.31 during premarket trading on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro data. Photo via Shutterstock