Trump Maintains Optimism But Oil Higher On Concerns Of War Escalation

Watch Oil Please click here for a chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: These days, it is very common for the most important stock market action to occur outside regular trading hours. For this reason, our charts are specifically designed to show the latest market action outside regular hours. When the day flips, for historical purposes, only the regular session action is shown. The regular session action does not show the full picture. Of note is the chart today no longer shows the market's deep excursion into zone 1 (support zone). The reason is the deep excursion occurred in the premarket. To see yesterday's premarket action, please click here. The chart shows the volume was heavier the last two days, but the volume is not heavy enough to provide any sort of confirmation of the moves. The chart shows RSI continues to hover around the oversold line. Yesterday, the stock market was deep in zone 1 in the premarket shown on yesterday's chart when, shortly after 7am ET, President Trump postponed the bombing of Iran's power plants and said talks were making good progress. President Trump continues to maintain optimism. President Trump is saying, "…this time, Iran means business; they want to settle. They want peace." Officially, Iran is denying talks. Countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan are attempting to mediate. Information from these countries show that both sides remain far apart. Investors should pay attention to the oil market more than the stock market. In the stock market, the momo crowd is extremely bullish but oil is seeing buying on concerns that there is still a high probability the war may escalate. Eurozone PMI In a surprise, in spite of the Iran war, manufacturing is undergoing expansion in the Eurozone. Manufacturing should have been adversely affected by rising oil and gas prices. A number above 50 indicates expansion. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Eurozone's flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.4 vs. 49.4 consensus. U.K. flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.4 vs. 50.0 consensus. Germany's flash March manufacturing PMI came at 51.7 vs. 49.6 consensus. France's flash March manufacturing PMI came at 50.2 vs. 49.4 consensus. Of note is the services PMI across Europe are coming weaker than consensus. India PMI Weaker numbers reflect the impact of the Iran war. Here is the data: India's flash March manufacturing PMI came at 53.8 vs. 56.8 consensus. India's flash services PMI came at 57.2 vs. 58.3 consensus. India is a big importer of oil and natural gas primarily from the Middle East. If the Iran war stops, India will be a beneficiary. There is a signal for a trade around position on India ETF EPI. Magnificent Seven Money Flows Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, it is important to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA). In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ). Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO). Bitcoin Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound. What To Do Now Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions and add tactical positions based on signals. The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter. Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.