The Oil Price That Would Trigger A Recession Is Getting Closer: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi stated that oil prices averaging close to $125 per barrel in Q2 could trigger a U.S. recession, with current WTI prices around $89. The firm raised its 2026 oil price forecast by nearly $15 per barrel due to the ongoing Iran conflict, impacting real GDP growth expectations by about 20 basis points. Prediction markets show a 45% probability of WTI reaching $125.01 by year-end, and Goldman Sachs has increased its recession probability to 30%, expecting Brent to average $115 per barrel in April.