This ETF Is Winning The Iran War Trade – And It's Now In Its 11th Week Of Gains

No sector has benefited more from the Iran war than U.S. oil and gas exploration. Since the Feb. 27 close — the final session before U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury —The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (NYSE:XOP) has surged 17.08%, leading every other U.S. industry exchange-traded fund tracked by CountryETFTracker.com. Year-to-date, XOP is up 43%, its best three-month performance since April 2020. But there’s more than just that. The XOP ETF is currently on its 11th straight week of gains — the longest winning streak in the fund’s history. Chart: XOP ETF Has Never Had 11 Straight Winning Weeks. Until Now. The 11-week streak is not just a milestone — it is unprecedented in XOP’s history. Previous record runs came during the post-COVID crude recovery and the 2022 energy supercycle. Both broke. The weekly chart above shows an almost uninterrupted vertical move beginning in January 2026, accelerating sharply at the outbreak of hostilities and continuing through Tuesday’s session. The fund’s 43% year-to-date advance puts it 23.5 percentage points ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) over the same period — a relative performance gap not seen since April 2020, when the energy complex staged a violent recovery from pandemic lows. Best And Worst Sectors Since The Iran War Began According to CountryETFTracker.com data, the sector rotation since the start of the Iran war has been stark. Behind XOP at the top of the ranking, the VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (NYSE:CRAK) is up 8.6%, followed by the SPDR S&P Telecom ETF (NYSE:XTL) at 5.7%, AMLP Energy Infrastructure ETF (NYSE:AMLP) at 3.1%, and VanEck Oil Services (NYSE:OIH) at +2.2%. Every other sector is broadly flat or negative. At the bottom: the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) has collapsed 27.8%, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (NYSE:ITB) is down 15%, and the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:JETS) has shed 12.6%. XOP ETF Top Holdings The fund’s largest positions by weight are led by Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE:VG) at 3.07%, followed by APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) at 2.87%, SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) at 2.75%, PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) at 2.69%, and Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) at 2.68%. ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FANG), and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) each hold a 2.63% weighting, with Viper Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:VNOM) at 2.62% and Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA) at 2.61% rounding out the top ten. Top-Performing XOP Stocks Month To Date Within the fund, the month-to-date leaders tell the story of how the war’s disruption cascades through the energy supply chain. Sable Offshore Corp. (NYSE:SOC) leads with a +103.09% gain, followed by Venture Global, Inc. (NYSE:VG) at +72.00%. Refinery-exposed names have been standout performers: Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:PARR) is up 44.17%, PBF Energy Inc. (NYSE:PBF) up 40.73%, and CVR Energy, Inc. (NYSE:CVI) up 38.41%. Upstream producers dominate the rest of the top ten: APA Corporation (NASDAQ:APA) +34.85%, SM Energy Company (NYSE:SM) +31.63%, Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) +29.95%, Talos Energy Inc. (NYSE:TALO) +27.59%, and Chord Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CHRD) +26.26%. The Market Read Eleven consecutive weekly gains is not momentum — it is a conviction trade. The fund’s small- and mid-cap exploration and production bias means its holdings carry maximum operating leverage to crude prices: in a $90-plus oil environment, their free cash flow expands disproportionately relative to integrated majors, and the market is pricing exactly that dynamic with no sign of second-guessing. The structural case for the streak continuing rests on one number: prediction markets currently price only a 38.5% probability that Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30. Until that number moves materially higher, the bid under XOP remains intact. The fund has never run 11 weeks straight. It has also never had a war closing the world’s most critical oil chokepoint as a tailwind for four consecutive weeks. Both things can remain true at once — and so far, they have. Image: Shutterstock