XRP ETFs Post $5M Outflow as Reserves Hit a 7-Year Low: Bullish or Bearish?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) spot ETFs posted a $5.15 million outflow Thursday, their biggest since Sept. 2, even as exchange reserves fell to a 7-year low. What the ETF Flow Data Shows Canary Capital’s XRPC (NASDAQ:XRPC) lost $1.37 million while 21Shares’ TOXR (BATS:TOXR) accounted for the remaining $3.78 million according to SoSoValue. Despite Thursday’s outflow, XRP ETFs remain up $9.60 million for the week, keeping the fund on course for a 10th consecutive week of net inflows. Friday’s session is the only hurdle left: a weekly outflow exceeding $9.60 million would break the streak, while anything below that keeps the run alive. What the On-Chain Data Shows Analyst Dark Defender posted on X that XRP sits 25% below its August high, but the fundamentals underneath tell a stronger story. Exchange reserves have dropped to a seven-year low near 1.7 billion XRP, leaving far less supply available for sale on the open market. That tightening supply comes as RLUSD (CRYPTO: RLUSD), Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin, grows to 88% of all stablecoin liquidity on the XRP Ledger, and as the network moves ahead with a roadmap targeting quantum-safe cryptography by 2028. “Wave 3 does not ask for permission,” Dark Defender wrote. What the RSI Data Says Widely-followed crypto analyst Cryptollica posted on X that XRP recently hit its lowest two-week RSI reading in 13 years, a deeper momentum washout than three prior cycle lows: 2018 bear market 2020 COVID crash 2022 cycle bottom The catch: XRP’s long-term ascending support line connecting major lows across those same cycles is still holding. Cryptollica’s case is conditional rather than a confirmed breakout. Hold that support and the historic RSI low marks a sentiment floor. Break it and the thesis falls apart. “Almost nobody wants it when RSI is printing a 13-year low and the chart looks broken,” Cryptollica wrote. “By the time the crowd feels safe again, you may already be looking at XRP from behind,” the analyst added. For context, the current two-week RSI sits at 43.78 against a historical low of 33.52, both above the standard oversold threshold of 30. Cryptollica is calling it a low relative to XRP’s own history, not the textbook definition. Photo via Shutterstock Read Also: CFTC Expands Regulatory Relief for Crypto Developers